Kislev, 5768
Dec., '08
Translated from the Makor Rishon newspaper
If the Likud would be run according to its constitution, it would have applied Israeli sovereignty over all parts of the Land of Israel that are in our hands long ago. But currently, the Likud is not run according to its own principles. Its ideology has been replaced by pragmatism. Today's Likud is convinced that in order to rule, it must access votes from Israel's Center. There in the Center, the Likud believes, waits a vast pool of voters who determine which party will win the elections. And so the Likud puts its ideology aside and vies for the elusive center of the voter pie.
A number of weeks ago, Dr. Asher Cohen, a senior lecturer at the Political Science Department of Bar Ilan University, put a wrench in the Likud's theory. According to a survey that he conducted on the political identity of Israel's citizens, 29% described themselves as Center. 15% defined themselves as moderate Right, and Dr. Cohen logically identifies them with Likud voters. But now for the big surprise: an additional 12% of those right of the Likud defined themselves as plain Right, while a whopping 22% of those right of the Likud defined themselves as extreme Right. All in all, 34% of Israel's rightists -- a full third of Israel's voters -- consider themselves to be politically right of the Likud!
Where, then, according to Dr. Cohen, is the Right hiding? His answer is simple. Those who defined themselves as Right and extreme Right by and large voted for Lieberman and Shas. They are currently "hiding" deep inside Ehud Olmert's government.
In light of these statistics, we can clearly see how erroneous the Likud's attempt to attract votes from the political Center really is. To the left of the Likud there is a bank of 29% of voters who define themselves as Center, while to the Likud's Right, the bank has 34% of Israel's voters. Why, then, does the Likud consistently attempt to woo the Left/Center voters? Not only are there less of them, but they already have a political home in Kadimah or the Labor party.
Clearly, if the Likud wants to return to the 48 Knesset seats that it once held (4 times what it has now) it must appeal to its natural constituency and proudly display its ideology, instead of denying it. But in practice, we see just the opposite. Likud chairman Netanyahu announces that he sees Ehud Barak as a worthy candidate for defense minister in a Likud-led government. In other words, the entire Right "bank" will have no influence on the policies of the Likud. In addition, Bibi is investing much of his energy into an attempt to neutralize the ideological voices in the Likud. His actions send a clear message to one third of the voters in Israel: You are not Likudnicks.
This is a no win situation. The first to lose is the Likud, which time and again loses the elections and has become a pale shadow of the Left. The second loser is the National Camp, which remains captive in the hands of the Left -- even when, on the surface, the Likud wins the elections. And most importantly, the entire State of Israel loses its only chance to survive and halt the blind march to its own destruction.
It is highly unlikely that anyone can convince Netanyahu to change direction and appeal to the Right bank of voters. As I have written in the past, the foundations of that problem are much deeper than its political reflection. But whether we like it or not, the key to the consolidation of the Right and Israel's rescue is exclusively with the Likud. Instead of splintering off into more and more right wing parties that will remain insignificant as long as the Likud stays connected to the Left; instead of deliberating whether to demonstrate with or without a permit, the Right must simply join the Likud and restore the ruling party to its own hands.
The Jewish majority is winning -- and it doesn't even notice! The settlements in Judea and Samaria are growing faster than in any other area of Israel. Many of the settlements have absolutely no room for new families. A new and vigorous generation has grown up in the settlements. Most of them choose to remain in Judea and Samaria after they marry and start their own families. The youth, inspired by the Homesh activists, stubbornly cling to the outposts that they put up on Sukkot and are planning more outposts for Chanukah. A steady and determined group of youth has managed to remain in Homesh since the summer.
